In Honduras’s hotly contested presidential race, public endorsements from US President Donald Trump and Argentine President Javier Milei aided Nasry Asfura to a narrow victory. He took office on January 27, 2026, and within two weeks held an informal meeting with Trump to address migration, trade, and security cooperation.
One month later, Asfura participated in the Shield of the Americas summit convened by the Trump administration. On March 22, then US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem visited Honduras to discuss military and intelligence support to combat organized crime and investment opportunities.
For Trump, consolidating an America-first coalition in Latin America requires reliable partners willing to cooperate on regional security and geopolitical priorities. For Honduras, the alignment is pragmatic. The United States remains its most important political and economic partner, accounting for 46 percent of exports and 35 percent of imports.
Historically, the United States was also Honduras’s leading source of foreign investment and a key destination for legal temporary workers. The Asfura administration is now seeking to recover and expand such money and labor flows to secure stability and economic growth.
Closer ties with Washington, however, come with a clear proviso: alignment with the America-first doctrine in the region. At a minimum, this requires progress on three fronts.
- Invest in Domestic Security
Honduras closed 2025 with a reported homicide rate of 23.2 per 100,000 inhabitants. While this marked an improvement from 25.3 in 2024, the country remains among the most violent in the region.
Former President Xiomara Castro relied heavily on a hardline approach characterized by repeated reliance on emergency powers. The Asfura administration, by contrast, aims to tackle insecurity through legislative reform.
Congressional President Tomás Zambrano has yet to outline specific measures. However, he has mentioned the ruling National Party seeks harsher penalties, faster judicial processes, and reinforced investigative mechanisms.
One of the most pressing challenges is extortion, which affects thousands of small and medium-sized businesses, transport operators, and urban merchants. In many areas, criminal groups maintain territorial and economic control through these practices.
To combat extortion, Asfura proposed during his campaign a national strategy. It includes specialized police units, victim protection programs, and strengthened territorial control through interagency forces targeting organized crime and drug trafficking. The latter would probably become a cooperation opportunity with the United States.
- Pursue Fiscal Austerity, Republicanism
Similar to the attempted austerity measures Trump has pursued during his second term, Asfura has pledged to reduce the size of government. According to Vice President María Antonieta Mejía, the reform would reduce the central government’s entities from 113 to 74.
The Asfura administration seeks to redefine the role of the state as the enabler of an investment-friendly environment built on clear rules, institutional stability, and a more agile public sector. Mejía argues that downsizing and streamlining the state apparatus is the key to attracting capital and moving toward sustainable economic growth.
Fortunately, Asfura’s government plan was already openly based on republican principles. This entails respecting the separation of powers and strengthening accountability mechanisms. Specifically, the administration proposes to safeguard the autonomy of public institutions, modernize electoral processes, and promote citizen participation in oversight.
By getting its house in order, Honduras will be in a better position to negotiate with the United States in areas such as nearshoring investment and public-private infrastructure projects. Prioritizing US capital and engagement over competing influences, such as China, could become a strategic move by Honduras.
- Choose Partners Wisely
Former President Castro severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan to establish relations with Beijing. This decision, however, was a significant blow to Honduran producers, particularly shrimp exporters. Between 2022 and 2024, the country lost more than $50 million in revenue from this sector. More than 60 shrimp farms shut down, resulting in the loss of thousands of jobs in the country’s southern region.
During his campaign, Asfura pledged to restore relations with Taiwan, although in practice this is far from straightforward. The Honduran leader must weigh the trade-offs and broader implications of cutting ties with China.
In addition to engagements with the United States, Asfura conducted a diplomatic tour in Israel and attended the inauguration of Chilean right-wing President José Antonio Kast. In Israel, he prioritized seeking opportunities for agricultural and technological cooperation to strengthen domestic industry.
In line with his US alignment and support for Israel, Asfura also announced Honduras’s withdrawal from the Hague Group. It is a leftist coalition of nations seeking to enforce International Court of Justice rulings on Israel. In addition, as part of efforts to strengthen legal certainty, his administration has applied for Honduras’s return to the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID).
Whether driven by pragmatism or ideological alignment, Asfura’s foreign policy presents a win-win strategic opportunity to expand trade and deepen economic cooperation. A further step could involve exploring dollarization or greater monetary optionality. Such a move could unlock new markets for both exports and imports and provide more stability to Hondurans.
By advancing a comprehensive security strategy, fiscal austerity to unlock investment, and a foreign-policy pivot back to the United States and its allies, Asfura is aligning Honduras with the America-first coalition. The fruits of this strategy, however, will depend on whether Honduras can go beyond rhetoric and meetings to deliver tangible security gains, credible institutional reforms, and a stable investment climate.
