“Trump Administration Military Strikes Against Drug Cartels in Mexico Would Carry Risks”
America-First Coalition’s Drug War Shows Statist Proclivities
Trump Administration Military Strikes against Drug Cartels in Mexico Would Carry Risks@JohnLewinski reports for the @dcexaminer, quotes publisher @FergHodgson: https://t.co/gJ1Pu5YvTW
— Impunity Observer (@ObserveImpunity) February 2, 2026
Fergus Hodgson, CAIA, is author of The Latin America Red Pill and publisher of the Impunity Observer.
John Scott Lewinski:
During most of President Donald Trump’s first year back in office, he toned down criticism of Mexico from his first White House stint. Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum even seemed to have a somewhat congenial relationship. However, the US ouster of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro is straining US relations in Latin America, with some administration officials eyeing Mexico as a next target for military action to destroy drug cartels.
1. How realistic is a Trump attack on the cartels?
There could be limited military engagement near the US border. However, the venture would be misguided. There is not one single head to chop off, and organized crime is seemingly everywhere in Mexico. That means there is no clear path to victory over a definable enemy. Further, going after President Claudia Sheinbaum directly, even if she is a compromised official, would be destabilizing for the region.
2. What is the likelihood of their success?
If success means ending drug-cartel presence and influence in Mexico, zero. Given insatiable demand north of the border, any touted victory would be short-lived, since there would be an opportunity vacuum waiting to be filled by the next cartel. This is why the America-first coalition needs to rethink how to approach the drug war. It has failed and will continue to fail, since fighting it merely makes narcotics more lucrative.
On the other hand, if the Donald Trump administration’s intent is to oust Chinese Communist Party officials from Mexico and the broader region, that is more promising. Pressure placed on President Claudia Sheinbaum could tie her hands regarding CCP relations. That means whatever involvement the CCP has in promoting harmful contraband would be reduced.
3. What factors are against it?
The fundamental economic argument remains prescient: prohibitions without broad social support and clear victims simply promote black markets. By elevating the value of the prohibited substance, the suppliers become wealthier and better organized. Drug cartels in Latin America are paramilitary organizations with sophisticated equipment and political partners. They are well positioned to buy off law enforcement and exist with them in symbiosis. The desire to continue fighting the drug war, even beyond US borders, points to the statist proclivities of Donald Trump’s America-first coalition. This is a barrier to addressing more compelling problems with federal policy.
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