How the Guatemala-Belize Border Dispute Fuels Crime

In the past two months, the border conflict between Guatemala and Belize—ongoing since colonial times—has flared up again with cross-border incursions along the Sarstoon River. This is an estuary that divides both nations where geography and legal borders become blurred. Between September 10 and 13, Belize accused Guatemalan soldiers of raising a flag on Sarstoon Island—belonging to Belize—while also harassing navigation on the river. 

In 2019, both countries agreed to submit the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), with Guatemala claiming nearly half of Belizean territory. However, incidents of conflict continue. While the risk of a full-scale military confrontation is low, the practical effects are transnational. The governance vacuum enables criminal economies: drug trafficking, illegal logging and fishing, wildlife trade, smuggling, and irregular migration.

This investigation explores how legal ambiguity enables illicit economies and the opportunity cost of prolonged uncertainty for both Guatemala and Belize. It also maps criminal activity in the Sarstoon and compares other fluvial governance mechanisms as models for reducing crime and fostering investment.