Will Trump’s 2024 Gains among Latinos Hold in the Midterms?
Democrats seek to capitalize on slipping support among Latinos for Republicans over immigration and cost of living concerns.
Questions for in-depth — Latino/Hispanic vote and immigration crackdown
1. Do you believe that Latino support for Republicans is holding or not?
It is growing. There is a lot of misunderstanding about Latino voting. Latinos are divided over immigration enforcement, and plenty support deportations. The finer details about the approach are murkier, but it is not as though a majority support open borders. They do not, even if some loud voices make us think otherwise. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez comes to mind.
On the other hand, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has proved incredibly popular with Latino voters, especially Colombians, Venezuelans, and Cubans. He is leading a sea change for foreign policy and reversing the authoritarian socialist tide that has caused so much emigration from Latin America. If he can upend the dictatorships in Cuba and Venezuela, this achievement will be historic and make President Donald Trump popular among Latino voters, especially the exiles and descendents from those two countries.
2. If immigration enforcement is causing backlash, what would you expect to see in polling or election returns? Are we seeing it?
There is polling to show a majority of Latino oppose the current approach to enforcing deportations. However, I am suspicious of how the questions are worded. My sense is most Latino communities in the United States are benefiting from the crackdown on the worst criminals among them. Further, the deportations are not racially targeted at mestizo Latinos. Rather, they are targeted at the worst criminals among the illegal-immigrant population. Keep in mind that Latinos are amenable to a firm hand from law enforcement, especially since many have known vicious crime and even guerrilla warfare in their home countries.
3. In your view, what issues are most likely to move Latino voters in 2026 (economy, immigration, schools, etc.) and why?
Economic concerns are the top priority for most people, and that includes Latino voters. Any GOP candidate seeking to garner favor with Latino voters would do well to oppose policies that take from working Latinos and give to other demographics. For example, student-loan forgiveness is a big one that frustrates Latinos. They tend to spend less time in higher education and do not wish to pay for those who do.
Further, many Latinos see themselves as ethnically white and will be dead against slavery reparations or any targeted welfare going to other demographics. They would also support deportations and crackdowns with regards to the Somali daycare and welfare fraud.
The chief challenge for any GOP candidate, and for the party in general, is getting Latinos off welfare programs and into the middle class. Once they achieve a middle-class standard of living, they are much more likely to vote conservatively. However, new arrivals in particular are high welfare users.
4. Any specific subgroups you think are most persuadable (age, gender, nativity, region)?
Yes, staunchly religious Latinos are receptive to many policies devoted to social conservatism. For example, gender ideology is alien to Christian Latinos, be they Catholic or Protestant. They will balk at supporting candidates who believe in gay marriage, so-called transgenderism, and the invasion of women’s sports by men.
Further, Christian Latinos will align with candidates speaking out against Islamic expansion in the United States. Valentina Gomez of Colombia—running in the primary to represent Texas’s 31st Congressional District—fits this archetype. She is staunchly against Islam and gender ideology, and she would likely perform well in the general election. She has also taken a strong stand against the socialism and guerrilla antics of Colombian President Gustavo Petro.
