Ecuador held presidential and legislative elections on February 9, 2025, and preliminary results highlight an intensified polarization among voters. Incumbent President Daniel Noboa has secured 44.3 percent of the votes, narrowly surpassing Luisa González, who has garnered 43.8 percent. González—the candidate for the Correísta Citizen Revolution party (RC)—delivered the party’s strongest performance since the 2017 election.
Among the 14 other presidential candidates, only two surpassed 1 percent of the votes.
- Leonidas Iza, the leader of the indigenous political party Pachakutik and the main mobilizer during the national strikes in 2019 and 2022, got 5.2 percent.
- Andrea González Nader, an outsider, free-market supporter, got 2.7 percent.
A runoff is set for April 13, when Noboa and Luisa González will face off once again. The incumbent president has branded himself as the center-right option. In contrast, González represents the left and a return of Correísmo, the political movement of former President Rafael Correa (in office 2008–2017).
The preliminary results of the legislative election reveal a similar political divide. Noboa’s Democratic National Action party (ADN) has secured 69 out of 151 seats in the National Assembly. RC has 64 seats, marking a near tie with the winning party. Pachakutik has eight seats, and the remaining seats will be distributed among other national and local parties.
While ADN will hold a simple majority: a sufficient plurality and enough to introduce legislation. However, ADN lacks an absolute majority and will need coalition votes for significant legislative reforms, particularly on economic issues. The 18 legislators from minor parties will play a crucial role, as their support (or opposition) could impact government stability.
The “Shy Vote” Phenomenon
Public discontent with polling inaccuracies has resurfaced in the wake of the election. One week before the elections, surveys suggested Noboa could win outright in the first round. However, a large portion of people previously labeled as “undecided” by polls ultimately chose González. This suggests the presence of a so-called shy vote. These are voters, amid rising polarization, who refrain from openly expressing their support for the Correísta candidate.
Santiago Basabe, a political analyst and professor, argues that, despite Noboa’s lead, González has became the real winner of the first round:
“The candidate-president appears to be the winner of the first electoral round. However, it seems as if he has been defeated. He and his close allies prefer to remain silent—a silence that raises suspicion and could extend to the pollsters who, almost without exception, were completely off.
They expected an overwhelming 50 percent or more, but in the end, he barely managed to secure just a few more votes than González. [The incumbents] have good reason to be worried. The outlook for the runoff is anything but promising. While being in office and on the ballot can help boost electoral growth, it can also backfire, leading to a loss of votes if they continue making serious mistakes.”
Voter fatigue was evident too. Many Ecuadorians expressed frustration with another campaign cycle (seven electoral processes in five years), especially since some have to travel long distances to return to their home cities to vote—which is mandatory in Ecuador. Amid political instability, many citizens perceive elections to be no longer about choosing the candidate with the most promising vision for the country. Rather, they have become a war between Correísmo and anticorreísmo.
The percentage of null and blank votes serves as an indicator of public discontent in Ecuador. At 8.89 percent—similar to the 2023 election—blank and null votes reflect apathy toward the policy proposals of the 16 presidential candidates. Moreover, unwillingness to choose a candidate suggests a lack of trust in those aiming to reach the Carondelet Palace.
Lester Cabrera, who has a PhD in international studies and is a former undersecretary of security studies and policies at the Interior Ministry, told the Impunity Observer: “The balloting was fast and one of the most transparent. The main highlight is that the electoral process was held in a free and democratic manner, without major challenges.”
However, he believes Noboa committed unconstitutional actions by campaigning while exercising his presidential duties. Cabrera noted the head of the Electoral Observation mission of the Organization of American States, Heraldo Muñoz. The former Chilean foreign minister has openly pointed out his dissatisfaction with the fact that Noboa did not take leave, as required by law, to campaign. This departure from precedent will appear in the report made by the OAS.
According to citizen surveys, the next administration will face three urgent challenges: (1) energy shortages, (2) persistent insecurity and organized crime, and (3) economic instability. How these crises evolve in the months leading up to the runoff will be decisive for both Noboa and González. As the sitting president, any major crisis during this period could weaken Noboa’s campaign, likely giving an advantage to González.
