In a striking upset to last-minute polls and exit surveys predicting a tight race, Ecuadorians delivered a clear message at the ballot box on April 13. President Daniel Noboa won the presidential runoff with 55.7 percent of the vote, defeating Correísta candidate Luisa González, who got 44.3 percent.
The 11-point margin confirms widespread rejection of a Correísmo comeback. The political movement associated with former President Rafael Correa (2006–2017) imposed socialist, authoritarian policies that dragged the country to economic crisis and political polarization.
Although voting is mandatory for Ecuadorians aged 18–65 residing in the country, this election saw over 250,000 additional votes. These came largely from voluntary voters: citizens living abroad, youth aged 16–17, and seniors over 65.
The vote disparity of more than 11 percent between candidates is telling. González gained 60,000 additional votes compared to the first round, while Noboa gained 1.2 million additional votes. This suggests undecided voters and those who previously supported other candidates rallied behind him.
Los ecuatorianos votaron ayer y reeligieron al actual presidente Daniel Noboa. Hacemos contacto con Paz Gómez (@mpazgomezm), de la organización Libre Razón, para los detalles y el análisis final de estos comicios.https://t.co/b9rgTU0OdS
— Espacio Libre (@EspacioLibreGt) April 14, 2025
Fraud Allegation amid Wide Margin, Broad Oversight
González has called for a recount citing alleged fraud. However, the significant gap in results and the presence of strong electoral oversight by both parties suggest such claims are a false narrative.
Furthermore, this second round saw the prohibition of cellphones and ballot photography. This measure was a response to earlier reports of voter coercion and extortion, especially in provinces that shifted away from González.
#EleccionesEcuador2025
— Javier Rodriguez S. (@mjavierrod) April 14, 2025
-Noboa saca 1.2 millones de votos más que en 1era vuelta.
-RC saca apenas 60 mil votos más
-Con datos a nivel provincial difícil adjudicar qué pasó con votos de Iza. Cotopaxi y Chimborazo es donde la RC crece más. Pistas pero no conclusiones
1/2 pic.twitter.com/25NuKQhuF6
Uncertainty spiked after the first round, with Ecuador’s country-risk score soaring to 1,900 points (a 19 percent risk premium), the highest during Noboa’s time in office. This reflected investor fears over a possible return to the socialist-authoritarian policies of the Correa era.
During her final campaign days, González made controversial statements that likely swayed voter perceptions. This included recognizing Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, casting doubt on dollarization (Ecuador’s most trusted institution), and promising to revive “peacekeeper” programs once used by Correa. These programs funded local gangs, many of which have evolved into sophisticated criminal organizations.
A Divided Legislature
The newly elected National Assembly will be sworn in on May 14. Noboa’s party secured 66 seats, while the Correísmo bloc now holds 67. However, Noboa’s strong approval could attract swing legislators, potentially giving his administration control over key legislative committees.
Ten days later, on May 24, Noboa will begin his new full presidential term. He faces a daunting national agenda: rampant insecurity, a persistent fiscal deficit, and a socioeconomic crisis that compels public-private partnerships, foreign investment, and robust job creation.In this regard, Ecuadorian political analyst and professor at San Francisco University of Quito Santiago Basabe emphasized the urgency of assertive action plan: “The immediate priority must be crafting a coherent political roadmap. The transitional period lacked one, and while the public has so far been lenient, four more years without direction is unsustainable. Ecuador needs leadership, management, and above all, ideas that show citizens the path ahead.”
